Next year’s Oscar nominations aren’t announced until January 17, but that doesn’t stop Vicci Ho making a few educated guesses about the potential big players in 2025.
Another year is about to come to a close, but for us film nerds, this means the beginning of awards season! This year’s Oscar race could turn out to be the most interesting in years, as the consensus is this is not a particularly strong year for films, leading to a wide open race with no clear frontrunners. So without further ado, here is my completely speculative, possibly very incorrect take on the films that could be big players at the upcoming Academy Awards.
Wicked
Jon M Chu’s musical extravaganza is already a smash at the box office, and it seems likely that it will also have a big award season. Oscars usually love a big musical (in production and box office success), and while this is not the critics favourite, it has enough critical success to be considered a serious contender.
Winning Best Film and Best Director at the National Board of Review are usually great barometers for Oscar success, and both Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande are winning a lot of praise for their performances that could lead to nominations. Wicked might just have enough momentum to defy gravity (I’m sorry) and soar all the way to the top.
Conclave
This thrilling Papal election drama by Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front) has been in the award and zeitgeist conversation since its Telluride Film Festival debut. My bet is the film will dominate all the main categories, especially given just how popular the film is with older audiences, aka a large number of Oscar voters.
Ralph Fiennes and Stanley Tucci are very likely to get nominations for their great performances, though what would be interesting to watch is whether Isabella Rossellini would nab a Supporting Actress nomination with her small but highly effective role as Sister Agnes.
Emilia Pérez
The most polarising film this award season, the Jacques Audiard ‘musical’ about a trans cartel boss left Cannes Film Festival on a high, winning both the Jury Prize and Best Actress for Zoe Saldaña, Karla Sofía Gascón, and Selena Gomez. Since its debut on Netflix in the US however, the public discourse and a lot of reviewers have been much less kind and highlighted some rather problematic representation. This is one that I suspect will be most affected by a generation gap, which will likely favour the film for the Oscars.
The actresses will be in the running, though it would be interesting to see if there will be a backlash against Netflix’s attempt to game the system by placing Zoe Saldaña in the supporting category.
The Brutalist
This is the critic’s favourite this year and the heftiest film this award season, clocking in a tick under 4 hours with an intermission. Brady Corbet’s historical epic starring Adrien Brody picked up the Silver Lion at its Venice Film Festival debut, and recently took Best Film and Best Actor honours at the New York Film Critics Circle Awards.
However, critics favourite does not usually mean Oscar frontrunner, especially one that is 210 minutes long, as we saw from Killers of the Flower Moon this year, so this is likely an uphill battle to become a frontrunner.
Nickel Boys
RaMell Ross’ adaptation of Colson Whitehead’s 2019 novel of the same name, Nickel Boys has been building its awards credentials since its Telluride debut, landing the prestigious Opening Night slot at New York Film Festival, and receiving critical acclaim as it marches into award season.
Having won Best Director and Best Breakthrough Performer at the Gotham Awards and winning Best Director at the New York Film Critics Circle Award, I think it’ll be a safe bet that Nickel Boys will be in play come Oscar time.
Anora
The winner of this year’s Palme d’Or at Cannes Film Festival, Sean Baker’s latest film about an exotic dancer who marries the son of a Russian oligarch and the chaos that ensues has been winning rave reviews since May. Mikey Madison’s performance has been considered a shoo-in for an Oscar nomination, and I think this will still happen, though I am curious if the film will land the many nominations as expected given the Academy’s history of shunning Baker’s films.
With the film failing to land any Gotham Awards and only winning Best Screenplay at New York Film Critics Circle, I wonder if its stock has dropped a bit.
A Real Pain
Jesse Eisenberg’s A Real Pain is likely the Sundance breakout at this year’s Oscars. The comedic drama starring Eisenberg and Kieran Culkin as cousins visiting Poland to visit their late grandmother’s childhood home was at the centre of a bidding war after its premiere and began its awards run by playing prestigious fall film festivals before its commercial release.
Kieran Culkin has been garnering rave reviews for his performance, the Oscars usually like to have a light but serious heartwarming charmer in its mix, and A Real Pain is a perfect fit.
Sing Sing
Nothing screams a film is gearing up for an Oscar run than a re-release in the new year and that is exactly what A24 is doing with Sing Sing. Based on a real life rehabilitation program at the infamous maximum security prison, the Greg Kwedar film has been praised for its deeply affecting performances, many of whom were real life participants of the program.
Oscar voters love redemption stories, and landing on the Top 10 Films at this year’s National Board of Reviews will certainly help its case. Colman Domingo has already won a Gotham Award for his acclaimed performance and an Oscar nomination should be a lock.
September 5
The potential sleeper to sneak into the Best Picture race, a historical drama on the ABC Sports crew covering the 1972 Munich Olympics that was suddenly at the centre of the Israel hostage crisis. Tim Fehlbaum’s thriller has been gaining strong word of mouth from industry types (aka Oscar voters) at Fall festivals, with quite a few even tipping the film to win Best Picture.
The Academy has a long history of awarding films about journalism (Spotlight) and historical events, so this is likely in play, though the current conflict in the Middle East would certainly affect the narrative on its awards run.
Other Quick Notes
Best Actress Race
This is possibly the most competitive race this year. Besides Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Mikey Madison (Anora) and Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Angelina Jolie will almost certainly get a nomination as Maria Callas in Pablo Larrain’s biopic Maria.
There’s also Demi Moore’s “made herself ugly” turn in Coralie Fargeat’s body horror satire The Substance and Maryanne Jean-Bapiste has been winning the critics heart in her devastating performance in Mike Leigh’s Hard Truths. Saoirse Ronin turned in one of her best performances yet in Nora Fingscheidt’s The Outrun, and I won’t be surprised if June Squibb squeaks in with her first lead role in Josh Margolin’s delightful Thelma.
Other heavy hitters like Nicole Kidman in Babygirl, Amy Adams in Nightbitch, and Tilda Swinton and Julianne Moore in Pedro Almodovar’s The Room Next Door could be in play too. This is going to be a very fun race to watch.
The big-budget sequels
Hollywood released a lot of sequels this year and at the current rate, at least two looks set to earn Best Picture nods. Even through its middling reviews many still think Ridley Scott’s Gladiator II will get a Best Picture nomination, though even if that doesn’t happen there is no doubt Denzel Washington will get a Best Supporting Actor nod for his magnificently fun turn as Macrinus.
Dune: Part Two is also expected to land one, which seems to highlight that the overall field is so weak that another average sequel released back in February could be in play.
The latecomers
A few films that are still awaiting release could make a play in the coming weeks. James Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown is tipped to be one of them, with the film landing on the National Board of Review Best Films list and Elle Fanning winning supporting actress along the way. Mufasa: The Lion King has been relatively quiet on the awards chatter, but it might be silly to rule Barry Jenkins out.
